Sunday, November 12, 2006

Indo-US nuclear Deal.


_______________________________________
India's quest for Nuclear Deal with uncle Sam.
_______________________________________



India and China are the world's one of the fastest growing economy, hopefully they will be able to sustain their immense economic growth in the coming years also. But most of the Economists are sceptic about the future curve, which has been projected as a sustainable range of 7-9 GDP.
Thats a herculian task for both of the nations.

If we look into recent trends of Shanghai and India, the dragon seems to be in far better position then the tiger, obvious ly why not :)
The real story is India imports a lion's share of Crude and Petrolium products from Iraq, Iran. 60% of indian oil consumptions depend upon how much they get from friend nations. We saw in gulf war how badly indian foreign exchange was affected. Thank god the war did not lasted long !!!!!

China with its fastest growing engine needs more oil than India, but their oil production is also huge, though they still import 30% of their consumption but their initiatives are enormous. In Yunnan Provience they are growing "jatropha" , so prospect for bio-fuel is good. Where as in India MP is a state where this initiative is taken, than to seeing its vast demand this is too less. (Using this fuel only in Chief Minister's car may not serve the whole purpose). The communist state has also vast land (known as new china, which joined China later) which has very vast oil reserves and being an agressive nation the companies are also going global with lots of acquisition and mergers in oil industry which makes it exposed to global market and to some extent they can controll the oil demand and pricing.

The idea is not to capture the oil barrels but to get a big share not a small pie in global energy market.
A short growth can cause recession if the growth is not sustained, and these two nations are working hard to put their feet in the global market. They know the road does not ends here and this is merely a beginning. Hence energy is a big factor. The men power can not be a factor for these fat countries.
There are two alternatives, burry trees and plants and keep them till they become gas or crude oil or explore possibility to use alternate energy.

India can hardly see and option, but to increase the alternative source of energy. Hydro power is badly affected because of the border issues with Bangladesh, Pakistan. The nuclear power is a potential alternative. The Ores available for radio active heavy metels are less and poor quality, to increase efficiency India knows that they have to Import from some country. After the Pokhran test hardly any nation will entertain if US denies!!!!

India requested US and in the mean time they have disclosed and opened the premises of their Nuclear Plants to Western Nations, (I have no idea why fissile materials are illegal and how they made it legal). But good news ! US will probably legalise teh US nuclear outfits :)
Now the march starts France also showed their interest in helping india with the energy scenario. (Where were they before?).
Late but atlease India can hope they can reduce thier dependency to some extent.

___________________________________________________



No comments: